Lake Erie dangerously low!

[bigjc]

Can anyone explain what causes Erie to be SO low this time of year?  On Thanksgiving Day I decided to slip in one last fishing trip, before putting the Legend away.  Upon launching at Lake Erie Metro, I found the lower Detroit River to being disturbingly low.  This may be an annual thing, but I am not often out this late in the season.

if this is an annual phenomenon, can anyone explain what causes it?

[djkimmel]

Somewhat annual but lately it is at an abnormal, particularly low this year due to all the low water issues we've been having for a number of years now. Not enough rain and winter runoff are part of the problem. Lack of prolonged ice cover last year made it worse. The abnormally warm weather we've been having makes it worse too along with the lack of ice cover. Some people also blame the shipping dredging for allowing too much water to run through the system too fast.

The last predictions I saw from scientists and related people expect the lower Great Lakes levels to continue dropping maybe the next 10 years. Maybe another 5 feet or more. We will find out.

[bigjc]

Thanks Dan.   But what I still don't get is this:  unlike like the flood control reseviours of the south, the Great Lakes only fluctuate throughout the seasons due to what?  I can see them being a bit higher during spring, but right now Erie must be a couple feet lower than summer.  There were areas that I am in regularly in the summer that right now were almost too low to navagate.

[djkimmel]

We had a really hot summer after a no ice winter. Not much rain. Water keeps running out through the St. Lawrence River regardless of how much comes in to the Great Lakes. Worse is lots of evaporation because of the summer heat, and no winter ice and white snow to reflect the sun. The darker water and bottom absorbs heat. All this equals a lot less water at the end of the year. As I mentioned before, many blame a lot of the water loss on the dredging for commercial shipping too. It's not a simple situation. The funny thing is, there's lots of talk about Lake Michigan and Lake Huron being in low water trouble while Lake Erie is in danger of too much water, high water, not low water?

We aren't yet at the record lows of 1964 but we are getting there in some places and may get there if things don't change. Maybe if enough smart people who care enough about healthy Great Lakes get into a room together to figure what we can control and what we can do about it, if we can do anything, we won't get to the record lows. The lakes did come way back up in the mid-80's - probably too far for lots of people but then, I don't build right on the edge of a lake or river expecting it won't change either because as an outdoors person, I should know better. Right now, the expected trend is for continued drops in the water levels and not enough agreement about why and what, if anything, to do about it.

There's no shortage of reading material...

Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are nearing record lows.
Today from the AP: As Great Lakes water levels plummet, small tourist towns struggle to keep shallow harbours open

"The Corps of Engineers says without heavy snowfall this winter, the lake (Michigan) may decline to its lowest point since record-keeping began in 1918."

MORE INFO and OPINIONS
International Upper Great Lakes Study
Findings and Recommendations
http://www.ijc.org/iuglsreport/?page_id=14

Georgian Bay water: Disappearing down the drain hole in the St. Clair River
http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1222985--georgian-bay-water-disappearing-down-the-drain-hole-in-the-st-clair-river

Great Lakes Losing 2.5 Billion Gallons Per Day Due to Manmade Drain Hole Near Detroit
New Research Finds St. Clair River Draining Water from Lakes Huron, Michigan at Triple Rate Originally Thought
PR Newswire (http://s.tt/1bFnB)
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/great-lakes-losing-25-billion-gallons-per-day-due-to-manmade-drain-hole-near-detroit-58094902.html

North America's Great Lakes are losing ice
http://earthsky.org/earth/north-americas-great-lakes-are-losing-ice

This article has a pretty good explanation about what seems to be known about how the lakes get and lose their water, plus some talk about how some fluctuation is actually important to the health of our ecosystem:
Down the Drain: The Incredible Shrinking Great Lakes
http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/habitats/down-the-drain/

[Team houston]

To me that theory about the  drain hole they dredged in the St. Clair river is B.S. If the water was being sucked out of Huron faster then St. Clair would rise. That water would have to go somewhere.

[EKennedy]

Not sure if anybody reads these...but here's a link to some pretty comprehensive data from the US Army Corps of Engineers.  Also not sure if Dan has links to these somewhere on the site.
might be of interest to some...

http://www.lre.usace.army.mil/greatlakes/hh/greatlakeswaterlevels/waterlevelforecasts/monthlybulletinofgreatlakeswaterlevels/

http://www.lre.usace.army.mil/greatlakes/hh/greatlakeswaterlevels/currentconditions/greatlakeswaterlevels/

You can get the first document via US mail right to you...somehow.

From the USACE site..you can get loads of data if that's what you are into.

Eric

[LennyB]

Spring before last the water was actually starting to be notably deeper in the river. I remember thinking Great it is coming back up. The water line was all the way into the base of the bushes in Crystal Bay. This past summer it dropped fast. Now those bushes have a foot or so of sand between them and the water line. Hopefully we get a solid ice this year and the Canadian Shield gets alot of snow which is the main source of water for LSC by way of Superior and Huron. At least that's what the DNR told us at the Downriver Bass meeting a few years back.

[gmetime24]

I'm hoping for a bunch of snow and a solid freeze this year. I was in Linwood today looking out over the Saginaw Bay and its crazy how far out you can see patches of dry land now. It is not a pretty sight

[djkimmel]

Hard on boats and motors, that low water. I think I have some lake level links information on the Marine Weather links page though it might not be those exact links. We can always use more good information.

There is plenty of confusing information out there and some strange, seeming contradictions. The story is that Lake Erie is way high because all the water from Lake Michigan and Lake Huron is draining into it. That doesn't seem to be true. Lake St. Clair passes quite a bit of water through pretty fast because of its smaller size and fast water exchange rate - much faster than the actual Great Lakes.

Lots of people talk about all the water going out through the Chicago diversion but others point out that there is more water being brought in through diversions from NE Canada. They also say that this is still a 'drop in the bucket' so it is real hard to figure out how these changes are happening. It probably is complex but I imagine, with Lake Erie being shallower and flatter that water level changes appear more extreme than a similar drop might appear in the deeper lakes maybe?

[bigjc]

Good points Dan.